Swine Flu Pandemic - Not Just Yet

The Director General of the World Health Organization said Saturday that the presence of swine flu in Mexico and the United States is “a serious situation” that could develop into a pandemic. There have been over 1,000 cases of swine flu reported in Mexico with 68 confirmed deaths due to the virus. In the United States, 8 people living in California and Texas had confirmed cases of the virus. All have since recovered. A Texas high school has been closed and at least one family has been quarantined indefinitely due to the presence of the virus. St. Francis Preparatory school in Queens, New York City had 75 students exhibiting symptoms of the flu. The symptoms associated with the flu are a fever, achiness, sore throat and coughing. New York State Department doctors tested the students for the swine flu. Results could come as early as today.

The new strain of the Swine flu is a combination of Avian and human genes as well as North American and European/Asian swine flu genes. The European/Asian strain is apparently the new element in the mix. The swine flu virus is generally contracted through contact with pigs but transmission between humans has been known to occur. The CDC website shows that the organization has been monitoring the United States cases since April 25^th of this year. Director Richard Besser stated that this is something the CDC is “worried about” since this situation is “developing quickly.” The CDC has designated this virus H1N1.

The WHO Director Margaret Chan told reporters today that the H1N1 virus is an animal virus and the reason it has pandemic potential “is because it is infecting people.” The current WHO alert status for this virus (scale of 1 to 6) is 3, which means “No or very limited human-to-human transmission.” When asked if her committee would consider raising the alert level to a 6, which is pandemic alert, she said, “Yes, indeed.”

Current precautions in Mexico City and across the Mexican State, in addition to school closings and individual quarantine, include the closings of universities, libraries and other government facilities. Government employees are required to wear dust masks and masks were being passed out freely to people in Mexico City on Friday. Also, travelers at the Mexico City airport were being questioned before being allowed to board.

The main reason given for today’s concerns of pandemic by Director Chan was that the virus was infecting people. However, according to Dr. Jay Steinberg, infectious disease specialist at Emory University Hospital Midtown in Atlanta Georgia, there are 3 criteria for a virus to be classified as having the potential for pandemic. They are:

· A new virus to which everybody is susceptible

· The ability to spread from person to person readily

· The capability to cause significant disease in humans

According to Dr. Steinberg, the new virus only meets one of the criteria; the fact that it is a new virus.

This is a good example of media over-hype. It is also a reason to distrust global organizations such as WHO to properly define a problem on a planetary scale. The response of Dr. Margaret Chan to reporters that the committee would readily jump the alert level from a 3 to a 6 on the basis of what is currently known about this virus is misleading and irresponsible. This only panders to the WHOs need for global credibility and fosters an atmosphere of fear in the general world population. This kind of response also lends further stress to an already over heated world economy causing public institutions to close and inhibiting travel and tourism. Couple this with a lapdog media hanging on her every word and faithfully fetching it back for us and you have a recipe for disaster. Not a disaster from a pandemic, but a manmade disaster created by fear mongering.

I would like to ask media types if they have done the math? There are (as of July, 2008 est.) 109,955,400 people living in Mexico. Over 1,000 have contracted this virus and 68 have died from it. How did those 68 die? Were they in the hospital? Did they live in the country far from medical help? Did they even seek medical attention? We do not know because the media has failed to tell us. Of the 1,000 who contracted this virus, how many had daily contact with pigs? We do not know, because the media has failed to report this as well. Also, there are 8 cases confirmed so far in the United States. All 8 recovered. Is this because there is better healthcare in the US and it is readily available?

I would like to ask Dr. Chan, how does the committee decide to jump from a 3 to a 6 on the pandemic scale when said virus only meets 33% of the criteria for a pandemic? What happened to 4 and 5? Are they expendable? And what are 4 or 5 on the scale? How do you define a level 4 virus? Since I know the answer to none of these questions I am again skeptical of the global panic scenario that we are not so obviously on the brink of.

I suggest that this response from WHO is a perfect example of why a single organization will never be able to function efficiently on a global scale. A single entity administrating global affairs will be inefficient at best and downright scary in its ability to manipulate global opinion at worst. Generating fears of a pandemic where no pandemic exists serves only 2 organizations that I know of, the media and WHO.

The swine flu continues to make headlines today as a media fueled panic gathers steam. Fox’s Headline, “Global Race to Contain Flu” and CNN’s “Race is on to Contain Swine Flu Outbreak” are but two examples.

Nine new cases have been confirmed in the United States, eight in New York and one in Ohio which brings the total number of confirmed cases in the US to around 20. Also, 6 new cases have been confirmed in Canada. These have been described as “mild”. Meanwhile, Mexico is claiming 103 deaths due to the Flu although only twenty two of these are confirmed to be swine flu. A new case has been confirmed in Spain, the first for Europe. The person with the confirmed case in Spain had just returned from Mexico. The European Union’s Health Commissioner, Andorra Vassiliou, advised travelers today to avoid all unnecessary travel to the US and Mexico.

In the US a “Public Health Emergency” has been declared. Officials say this will free up some 12 million anti-virus medicines to states that require them. "We're preparing in an environment where we really don't know ultimately what the size or seriousness of this outbreak is going to be," U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said Sunday. Dr. Richard Besser was quoted as saying, "We do think this will continue to spread but we are taking aggressive actions to minimize the impact on people's health.” Dr. Besser is Acting Chief of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta.

Israel and New Zealand are investigating cases of the flu for the possibility of the A/H1N1 virus. Japan is expected to convene a Cabinet meeting today to investigate ways to control the possibility of the virus coming into that country. The nations of Singapore, Thailand, Japan, Indonesia, South Korea and the Philippines were checking for signs of fever in passengers returning from North America. Airlines are not cancelling any flights but will waive fees normally charged for changing reservations.

On the United Nations front, a spokesman for the World Health Organization, Peter Cordingley, said the virus was spreading quickly in Mexico and the southern U.S. and has the potential to become a pandemic and a global threat. The World Bank is set to release $25 million in funds to Mexico with another $180 million earmarked for long term aid.

The Wall Street Journal is reporting this morning that Mexico City looks like a “ghost town” with the cancellations of religious services and the closing of many restaurants and theaters. Even though officials insist that the flu cannot be contracted from eating pork, many nations including Russia are banning the importation of the meat from Mexico. The Los Angeles Times says some nations appear to be reacting in a “near panic”.

This writer stands by his initial assessment; it is not time to panic. While I applaud most proactive measures taken by the United States and other nations, the news reports would have us believe that the world is on the verge of a virtual stampede. And that’s exactly what it is so far-virtual. The reporting news agencies rarely, if ever, contain less than inflammatory language concerning this outbreak of a virus that little is known about. The virus, now known as A/H1N1, has claimed 18 victims in Mexico according to CNN and 22 victims according to FOX. There are no deaths anywhere else on the globe. Other cases so far have been mild-as in “you have the flu”. The virus appears to target young adults.

While the United States’ declaration of a “Public Health Emergency” has been labeled as nothing more than pro active by the government, one hopes that their definition of a “Public Health Emergency” does not read as the WHO’s definition which is: “an occurrence or imminent threat of illness or health conditions caused by bioterrorism, epidemic or pandemic disease, or highly fatal infectious agents or toxins that pose serious risk to a significant number of people.” This writer also intends to investigate why a public health emergency is being overseen by the Department of Homeland Security which was founded to thwart terrorism.

So far, this is the flu. To help you get perspective on this, in the nineteen nineties there were an average of 36,000 deaths a year in the United States alone from the flu and related causes. This writer finds little cause for panic at this point in time. The economic impact of this falsely generated panic continues however. Some countries are even going so far as to quarantine people suspected of having the virus. This is ridiculous. If an official comes to your home and tells you that you have been involuntarily quarantined, this writer suggests you have bigger problems than whether or not you may have the Flu. Travelers in Thailand have had their temperatures taken when exiting aircraft inbound from North America. Taking your temperature? What exactly, is that going to tell anyone? You could be carrying the virus without a temperature. Worse yet, you could have a temperature and not have the A/H1N1. What would they do with you then? Quarantine? Tell you to see your Doctor and check up on you to be sure you did? Russia and other nations are banning the import of Mexican pork in spite of the assurances that people cannot catch the virus in this manner. More impact on the world economy.

My point is this: This whole situation is beginning to smell. The response by governments, and especially the mainstream media, is far in excess of the threat this flu has so far generated. I am not saying that we as a nation should not be proactive; I am saying that this bears close scrutiny.